Second child release helps the preschool market
Birth population statistics
Source: Dongxing Securities Research Institute, National Bureau of Statistics
The number of newborn babies has been declining since 2000, and has stabilized since 2010. The increase in 2014 after the partial opening of the second-child policy in 2013 was particularly evident. In 2015, the comprehensive second-child policy was liberalized. According to the latest official statistics of the Bureau of Discipline Inspection, the number of births in the first half of 2016 increased by 6.9 percentage points compared with the same period in 2015, and the birth rate of the two children exceeded 40. Therefore, we believe that the effect of the policy of fully liberalizing the second child is gradually emerging, and the trend of increasing the number of newborns will continue.
After the opening of the comprehensive second child policy from 2016 to 2020
Forecast new birth population
Source: Wang Guangsheng's "Problems and Reflections in the Study of Fertility Policy Adjustment"
Based on this, we estimate the target number of the kindergarten education market from 2016 to 2020. It is estimated that there will be at least 120 million students in the early childhood education market in the next five years. The huge number of young children has laid a solid foundation for the development of the early childhood education industry, and the future preschool education market is expected to usher in the golden period of development.
2016-2020 pre-school education market target number
Source: Dongxing Securities Research Institute
Private kindergartens, in short supply
Comparison of the number of kindergartens in China and the growth rate of children in the park in 2005-2014
Source: Zhiyan Data Research Center
According to the statistics of the Ministry of Education, the number of kindergartens in China has grown from 68,800 in 2005 to 139,300 in 2014. The number of children in the park also maintained a high growth trend, which exceeded the number of public kindergartens for the first time in 2012. In 2014, the number of people in the park reached 21.25 million, accounting for 52.5%.
Number of private kindergartens and their proportions in 2005-2014
Source: Zhiyan Data Research Center
Private early childhood education institutions become important market players
Source: Company Announcement Dongxing Securities Research Institute
From the perspective of a series of policies recently formulated by the Ministry of Education, it is a general trend to include pre-school education in the compulsory education stage. We believe that the inclusion of pre-school education in compulsory education has an important impact on private kindergartens. On the one hand, once pre-school education is included in compulsory education, the government's financial support for public kindergartens will increase. On the other hand, compulsory education means that the admission rate of school-age children is close to 100%, so it will obviously boost the overall demand for kindergartens, and private kindergartens will benefit at the same time.
By the end of 2015, the number of kindergartens in China had reached 223,700, of which 146,400 were private kindergartens, accounting for 65%. The number of children in the park is 42.648 million, of which the number of private kindergartens is 230.24 million, accounting for 54%. In the future, the number of private kindergartens will maintain steady growth and still occupy the main market of the industry.
Source: Fuhua Asset Investment Research Center
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