First, the introduction of futures contracts
On November 26, pulp futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. According to the draft contract drafted by the exchange, the trading variety is bleached sulphate softwood pulp, the trading unit is 10 tons/hand, and the minimum trading margin contract value is 4%, which is calculated at the current spot price of about 6,600 yuan/ton. The actual margin for each hand is estimated to be only about 5,000 yuan.
Second, the upstream and downstream industry chain relationship of pulp
Main upstream product of pulp
The raw materials for pulp are mainly wood chips, non-wood chips and waste paper. Wood chips are divided into two categories, namely coniferous wood chips (including wood chips of Pinus massoniana, larch, red pine, spruce, etc.) and hardwood chips (including birch, poplar, elm, elm, maple, etc.). Wood chips of tree species); there are mainly three types of non-wood chips, which are raw materials of grasses (such as straw, wheat straw, reed, bamboo, bagasse, etc.) and bast fiber raw materials (such as hemp, kenaf, linen, mulberry, cotton stalks). Leather, etc.) and raw materials for wool (such as cotton fiber).
Waste paper pulp is a pulp that is sorted and screened after being recycled, warmed by water, and re-pulled into pulp for reuse.
Main downstream products and consumption ratio of pulp
In the Chinese pulp demand structure of 2014-2018, the demand for cultural paper ranked first, followed by household paper and packaging paper. The consumption of raw paper pulp for cultural paper and packaging paper was firstly suppressed and then increased, and the consumption of primary paper pulp for household paper grew steadily.
In 2018, the downstream new capacity is still mainly based on packaging paper, followed by household paper and cultural paper. However, due to the general release of new capacity and the low utilization rate of the original capacity utilization, 2018 cultural paper accounted for 53% of the overall pulp demand structure, down 2 percentage points from last year; household paper increased by 2 percentage points to 28%; packaging paper changed little, close to 19%. In terms of raw material structure, the consumption of mixed waste paper is prohibited from import and paper packaging, and the amount of pulp (raw pulp) may increase in the later stage. However, due to the large price difference between wood pulp and waste paper, the substitution is small.
Third, pulp product supply pattern and trend analysis
Analysis on the trend of spot price of imported wood pulp in China
Before 2014 to September 2016, due to relatively stable supply and demand in the market, the price trend of imported wood pulp in the spot market was relatively flat. The weekly price fluctuation space was 50-100 yuan/ton, and the industry was not obvious during the peak season. From September 2016 to October 2017, due to foreign emergency repairs, tight domestic stocks and large-scale paper mills entering the market to replenish the library and other factors, the price rose rapidly, among which the softwood rose by 54% and the broadleaf pulp increased by 36. %; From November 2017 to 2018, the contradiction between supply and demand was outstanding, the demand was slow to follow up, and the price of pulp fell rapidly, but the price difference between softwood and broadleaf pulp was still around 1,000 yuan.
In 2018, the spot market price of imported wood pulp was affected by abundant supply, weak demand and macro factors. The price continued to decline, but it was still at a high price in the past five years. The reasons for the price trend are mainly the price decline caused by the early digest of downstream orders in the fourth quarter of 2017 and the arrival of wood pulp supplies in Hong Kong; the Qingdao Shanghe Summit in the first half of 2018, the strike of Brazilian truck drivers, the depreciation of the RMB, the strength of the external market and the middle The US trade war supported the market, and the price of pulp rose slightly. The downstream demand continued to be weak during the year, leading to a downward trend in the off-season in September.
Overall, the annual average price of imported softwood pulp, broadleaf pulp and natural color paste in 2018 (from January to October) was at a high level in the past five years, which was 15% higher than the average annual price in 2017. 7%, 20%, only the annual average price of chemical pulp spot decreased by 4%, mainly due to the poor shipment of raw paper from downstream paper mills and the low enthusiasm of raw materials.
Analysis on the Change Trend and Causes of Pulp Production in 2014-2018
In 2014-2018, the average volume of waste pulp production was about 79%, the average value of wood pulp production was close to 13%, and that of non-wood pulp was about 8%. In 2018, waste pulp accounted for 78.05% of the total pulp output, down 1.23 percentage points from the same period of last year, and down 1.33 percentage points from the highest value in 2015; non-wood pulp accounted for 7.13%, down 0.38 percentage points from last year, the highest in 2014. The value of the value decreased by 2.42 percentage points; the wood pulp accounted for 14.81%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points over the previous year and an increase of 2.65 percentage points from the highest value in 2014.
Analysis, the US import restrictions are becoming more and more strict, the proportion of waste paper pulp supply continues to decline steadily, and affected by the elimination of backward production capacity, non-wood pulp in the pulp, small and medium-sized factories or phasing out, accompanied by The new capacity of wood pulp in domestic large-scale enterprises will be released one after another. In 2018, the proportion of wood pulp production is expected to increase by 1 percentage point.
Statistical Analysis of Wood Pulp Inventory Data in China's Main Ports
The main distribution centers of domestic wood pulp are in Qingdao Port, Changshu Port and Baoding District. The warehouses in these three areas are relatively concentrated. Due to the increase in port throughput and domestic demand, the average value of Hong Kong deposits has reached a five-year high, and the average value is higher than the same period last year. Generally speaking, the average value of pulp stock in Qingdao Port is 400,000-500,000 tons, and Changshu is about 300,000 tons. The normal area is about 40,000 tons. However, in 2018, pulp stocks remained high in major regions. In October, stocks in Qingdao Port and Baoding reached record highs, up 17% and 23% respectively, up 106% and 230% respectively.
Pulp project under construction statistics
According to incomplete statistics, in 2018, the domestic and international wood pulp production capacity was 3.5 million tons, of which broadleaf pulp accounted for 52%, softwood pulp accounted for 31%, and the rest was dissolving pulp; in 2019, domestic and foreign wood pulp production capacity was 1.15 million tons. The volume of softwood pulp is the largest, followed by chemical pulp; the new capacity in 2020 and after is 4.633 million tons, mainly broad-leaved pulp. In 2018-2019, the newly added production capacity was basically Chinese paper enterprises. The integration process of domestic scale paper pulp and paper accelerated, and the cost advantage in the later period was highlighted.
Analysis on the Trends and Causes of China's Consumption
China's pulp consumption growth rate was 2.39% in 2014-2017. In 2018, due to the ban on importing waste paper, the release of downstream paper products, and the Sino-US trade war, China's pulp consumption decreased by 4.74% compared with last year. According to the classification of pulp, the consumption of wood pulp has increased by 6.23% in the past five years, and both of them maintain positive growth. It is expected that the consumption of wood pulp will increase by 1% in the proportion of raw materials in 2018; the annual growth rate of non-wood pulp is -8.33. %, both maintained negative growth; the average annual growth rate of waste paper pulp was -0.29%. The consumption of waste paper pulp in 2018 may continue to decline in a narrow range, mainly due to factors such as restricted mixed waste paper and Sino-US trade war.
Pulp product application
The traditional light season of pulp products and the downstream finished papers have a high degree of coincidence. During the peak season of paper products, paper mills have higher enthusiasm for stocking materials, and the pulp market is booming. The main downstream cultural paper season is the opening season and the tender period of the publishing house, generally the annual March-March and August-November, the paper mill in March-May (the tender for the raw materials for autumn textbook production) and August-November (Tendering of raw materials required for the production of textbooks next spring). There is no obvious off-season demand for downstream household paper. The general promotion during the holidays is good, and the shipment is good. The peak season is from March to April and August to January of the next year; the white card industry is booming season and household paper. similar. Therefore, the traditional peak season for pulp products is January-March and September-December, and the off-season is April-July.
Fourth, the printing paper product supply pattern and trend analysis
Analysis on the price trend of cultural printing paper products in 2014-2018
In the first half of 2014-2016, the demand for cultural printing paper market was relatively low, overcapacity, low price operation, market demand improved in the second half of 2016, downstream industry procurement enthusiasm increased, cultural printing paper prices entered the upward channel, 2017-2018 price All are in high position. In 2018, the social demand for cultural printing paper was less than expected, and the price fluctuated at a high level.
Analysis of the supply pattern of domestic cultural printing paper in 2014-2018
The overall supply of cultural printing paper in 2014-2018 showed a downward trend. Although the market has 550,000 tons of new capacity to be put into production in 2018, the industry's prosperity is not high, and the overall operating rate is lower than 2017. Therefore, the output of cultural printing paper is 2017. Year is reduced.
Analysis of the Demand Structure of Cultural Printing Paper in 2014-2018
Affected by online media in 2014-2018, the demand for cultural printing paper has decreased year by year. In 2018, the paper industry was not very prosperous. With the influence of Sino-US trade wars, the consumption of terminal paper products decreased, and the demand for cultural printing paper continued to decline.
V. Analysis of supply pattern and trend of household paper products
Analysis of the price trend of wood pulp household paper market in 2014-2018
In 2014-2018, the market price of wood pulp and non-wood pulp household papers showed a steady upward trend. Due to the rising price of raw wood pulp imported from raw materials, in October 2017, the market price of wood pulp and non-wood pulp household paper was at five. The highest level in the year; the price of imported wood pulp in raw materials gradually declined in 2018, and the price of wood pulp and non-wood pulp household paper fell synchronously due to the weak downstream demand.
Analysis on the Change Trend and Causes of Production and Operating Rate in 2014-2018
China's household paper production continued to grow at a high rate in 2014-2018, and the main reason behind the increase was the continuous increase in the capacity of tissue paper companies. In recent years, the overall operating rate has shown a downward trend, mainly due to the deterioration of the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry.
Inventory Change Trend and Cause Analysis in 2014-2018
Domestic paper business stocks usually have three lows and one high point in the year: the low point includes the lowest point, about one month before the Spring Festival, and the second lowest point, "Golden Silver Four" and "Golden September Silver Ten" household paper. In the traditional peak season, the inventory lows before the Spring Festival are mainly due to the concentrated purchase demand of consumers and the deep processing enterprises of tissue paper. The low positions in “Golden Three Silver Four†and “Golden September Silver Ten†are more dependent on tradition and Holiday promotion for emerging online platforms.
6. Analysis of supply pattern and trend of packaging paper
Analysis on the price trend of domestic white cardboard products in 2014-2018
In the past five years, the price of white cardboard has varied. From 2014 to 2015, due to the concentrated production capacity, the price of white cardboard has been falling. In 2016-2017, the capacity expansion has slowed down and the price of white cardboard has been rising. The price trend of white cardboard in January-August 2018 was weaker than last year, but it is still at a high level in recent years and has not fallen to the low level of 2014-2015. The highest price of white cardboard in January-September 2018 appeared in the first quarter, at 6,450 yuan / ton, up 5% - 15%; the lowest price in July, at 5,150 yuan / ton, down 15%. In the first half of 2018, the price of white cardboard fell mainly for the following reasons: First, the price of raw wood pulp decreased, the softwood pulp and chemical pulp decreased significantly, and the broadleaf pulp weakened, resulting in a reduction in the cost of white cardboard; secondly, with Jiangsu enterprises have promoted new projects in an orderly manner. The increase in white cardboard supply is expected to increase, market competition is intensifying, and prices are falling rapidly. Finally, due to environmental governance and export trade being blocked, downstream demand is tightening, stocking attitude is cautious, and market trading is weak. . In the second half of the year, as the enterprises once again joined forces, the market competition slightly weakened, and the price of white cardboard showed an upward trend.
Analysis of Domestic White Card Paper Supply Pattern in 2014-2018
The output of white cardboard has increased slightly in the past five years and is expected to fall slightly in 2018. In 2014-2016, the output increased steadily, with an average annual growth of about 200,000 tons. Since 2013-2016, new white cardboard projects were put into production, and the Group's capacity expansion was the mainstay. In 2016, the profitability of white cardboard began to improve. The production enthusiasm has improved and the construction has reached the highest level in the past five years. The decline in 2017-2018 was mainly due to the slowdown in demand growth, which was stable and profitable, and the paper mills jointly stopped.
In 2018, the monthly output of white cardboard has not changed much, and the phenomenon of downtime is obviously less than that of last year. The joint situation between paper mills has broken down and some of them have joined together. Competition between paper mills has intensified this year. Due to the decrease in demand for the Spring Festival holiday in January and February, paper mills reduced production scheduling and eased inventory pressure. In the remaining months, the output of white cardboard was basically around 600,000 tons, and the production was relatively stable. The operating rate of white cardboard in most of the year was over 80%, and it fell slightly in May-July. At that time, some paper mills again closed down to raise prices, and later stopped increasing with price increases.
Analysis of Domestic White Card Paper Demand Structure in 2014-2018
In the past five years, the consumption of white cardboard has increased overall. It has benefited from the improvement of domestic consumption capacity and the emphasis on food safety. In addition, the expansion of white cardboard production capacity is obvious, and the increase in production also promotes consumption growth. It is expected that the consumption of white cardboard in China will decline in 2018. The main reason is that exports will be blocked due to trade disputes this year. The consumption of downstream industries is generally reduced. It is estimated that domestic white cardboard consumption will be around 6.6 million tons in 2018.
Responsible editor: Ge
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