At the moment, the new word “Likonomics†created by Barclays Capital is becoming a hot topic in economics. It is used to refer to the economic growth plan formulated by the new government headed by Premier Li Keqiang, China. The core contents include: no stimulus measures, deleveraging and structural reforms, and short-term benefits in exchange for long-term benefits.
The long-term future, hard work and robbery, the beginning of the success.
At the moment, the new word “Likonomics†created by Barclays Capital is becoming a hot topic in economics. It is used to refer to the economic growth plan formulated by the new government headed by Premier Li Keqiang, China. The core contents include: no stimulus measures, deleveraging and structural reforms, and short-term benefits in exchange for long-term benefits.
Barclays believes that Li Keqiang has made up his mind to bring the Chinese economy to a correct path of sustainable development.
This judgment was made after the government’s “iron-wound governance†broke out in June this year’s so-called “money shortage†– the central bank did not immediately put some traffic into the market through reverse repurchase, as in the past, to alleviate the shortage of funds, namely commercial The bank is eager to "release water."
It turns out that even in the past three months, the Chinese economy has experienced a decline in economic growth, and the new government has withstood the pressure of introducing new economic stimulus measures.
slow down
Wei Jianguo, secretary-general of the China International Economic Exchange Center and former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, recalled that the processing trade he had been in charge of was not innocent. The processing trade has solved the employment problem of 120 million migrant workers in China, and has also achieved the export of a big manufacturing country like China. However, China's exports are now in a very embarrassing situation: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's exports in the first five months of 2013 were only 1.6%, which is a long way from our 10% target. “Can there be a good prospect for the whole year? We are looking forward to it, but it is very difficult.†Wei Jianguo said.
“Why the Chinese economy will slow down, because the model of the first 30 years cannot support the future development, and the model of the first 30 years must be adjusted. China is now facing a crossroads of reform.†Zhang Yansheng, secretary general of the Academic Committee of the State Council Development and Reform Commission "China Economic Weekly" said that the economic slowdown of the central government is under pressure, the local government is under pressure, the enterprise is under pressure, the market is under pressure, and the banks are under pressure, but there is pressure to transform, and it is impossible to transform without pressure.
It now appears that the central government is willing to pay the price of a short-term economic slowdown for long-term sustainable development.
"After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has reached a stage where it has to go through a hurdle." Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
Over the past 30 years, China’s economic aggregate has jumped to the second place in the world, and has become the world’s largest trading nation and industrial goods manufacturing country; but at the same time, credit expansion, over-investment, local debt risk, export dependence, ecological damage And the excessive intervention of the government has led to the unfairness and inefficiency of resource allocation, and has become a heavy price for rapid economic growth.
“This is indeed not a sustainable development model. China does face many problems.†Mohamed Saqib, secretary-general of the China Association for the Promotion of China’s Economic and Cultural Development, bluntly pointed out that “the biggest challenge for China is that the government’s power exceeds Economic development, which will hinder economic prosperity and development, is also a problem faced by many developing countries. China must be very cautious."
Former Polish Deputy Prime Minister Koledek believes that during this transition period, the Chinese economy must shift from an export- and investment-driven model to a consumption-driven model. “Because China’s consumption is too weak compared to other countries in the world, even in emerging economies such as Brazil and Russia, China’s consumption is generally very weak.†During his administration in Poland, he pursued a kind of The order of gold (1236.50, 23.80, 1.96%) is a relatively healthy rate of economic growth that balances exports, imports, and balances investment, GDP, consumption, fiscal budget, and fiscal expenditure. In his view, China should do the same.
Huo Jianguo, Dean of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, accepted an interview with China Economic Weekly: "Our economy will eventually shift to a domestic demand-based growth model. However, this transformation will take a long time, I am afraid that it will not be 5 years. It will certainly be completed. It has been 10 years since the introduction of the transitional economy, and now it seems that the effect is not ideal."
new momentum
Of course, in the past three months, the new government has been actively looking for new impetus to support future economic growth in China.
At the end of March, when Li Keqiang visited Jiangsu and Shanghai, he agreed and promoted the establishment of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, thus forming a new pattern of reform and opening up in Shanghai, the Yangtze River Delta and the Yangtze River basin, and building a new engine for the construction of the free trade zone.
At the end of May, Li Keqiang attended the Beijing Summit of the International Service Trade Fair, demanding that the development of service trade be accelerated and the modern service industry to become a new engine of economic growth.
At the beginning of June, when he visited Hebei, Li Keqiang proposed to speed up the integration of the Bohai Rim region, which is another new engine for China's economic growth.
"Now it seems that industry, region and openness will all be the new engines for the future growth of China's economy." Wang Yiming said, cultivating new growth engines, promoting structural adjustment and technological innovation, which is found from the supply side. The driving force of China's economic growth. Urbanization mainly solves the problem of China's economic demand. It means that China can create new consumer demand and new investment demand in the future.
There is no doubt that new urbanization will become a huge engine for China's economic growth in the future.
However, the shortcomings left by the government-led urbanization in the first 30 years to stimulate economic growth still leave the decision makers with a lingering fear. Under the assessment of GDP indicators, local governments have seized projects, repaired roads, built high-rise buildings, built new districts, built squares... but still have not solved the problem of urbanization.
"A new round of urbanization must resolutely avoid the drawbacks of urbanization, which requires institutional solutions."
Yin Zhongqing, deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, just attended the "China Economic Weekly" interview, just participated in the group discussion of the "Report of the State Council on the work of urbanization construction" by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress. “The discussion was very enthusiastic. Normally it was usually around 11 o'clock. The sixth group I was in was discussing until 12 noon. Urbanization is too complicated and it is difficult to reach a consensus.â€
In fact, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" urbanization plan formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission was completed as early as the end of last year, but it has not been announced. The main reason is that everyone has not reached a high consensus on the path of urbanization.
Zheng Yongnian, director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at the University of Singapore, said in an interview with China Economic Weekly that "the central government is discussing what kind of urbanization and what kind of urbanization the local government is doing." The key to the problem is Both are likely to be inconsistent. When he visited many cities in China, he rarely saw urban reforms, and almost every city had an impulse to expand.
“For local governments, the most important result of urbanization is GDP. The urbanization of land is far more important than urbanization. At the same time, they need a lot of money to increase investment, which further increases the already high level. Local debt risk.†He believes that the finalization of China’s urbanization will depend on local governments because they are the driving force of urbanization.
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