Highlights of the report
From the exchange rate reform in 2005 to April this year, the cumulative appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar reached 18%, and although the euro was in a depreciation situation in 2007, with the protection of trade from the EU and the slowdown of economic growth in the EU region, it can be expected that 08 The possibility of reversing the devaluation of the renminbi against the euro in 2014 is very high. Against the background of the rapid appreciation of the RMB and the deterioration of the external environment, China's export enterprises will face huge challenges.
According to the survey, nearly 57% of small and medium-sized export enterprises' after-tax profit margins are concentrated within 5%, with profit margins of 5% -10% accounting for 28%, and 10% -15% accounting for only 9.57%, high Among the 15%, only 5.45% shows that the profit margins of China ’s small and medium-sized export enterprises are not high, especially in labor-intensive manufacturing industries such as textiles, clothing, shoes, and hats. 84.07% of export enterprises ’profit margins are concentrated within 5% . In the context of the rapid appreciation of the RMB, China's export enterprises will face severe survival pressure.
In view of the current trend of accelerating the appreciation of the RMB, our research team made a statistic on the extent of the RMB appreciation that the export enterprises can tolerate. Divided into five grades, namely 2% below, 2% -4%, 4% -5%, 5% -6% and 6% above, it is found that the RMB appreciation that can be tolerated by export enterprises is mainly concentrated in 2% (Including 2%), this part of the enterprises (707) accounted for 39.7% of the total sample, followed by 2% -4% (602, accounting for 33.8%), 4% -5% (340, Accounting for 19.1%), 5% -6% (88 companies, accounting for 4.95%), more than 6% (43 companies, accounting for 2.42%). Less than 30% of export companies can tolerate a RMB appreciation of more than 4%. Among them, the textile, apparel, shoes, and hat manufacturing industries can tolerate a RMB appreciation of less than 2% (including 2%) up to 44.5%, and the proportion of companies that can tolerate more than 6% is zero. The rate of RMB appreciation in 2008 will accelerate. The RMB appreciation against the US dollar in the first three months has exceeded 4%. It is foreseeable that the export pressure of small and medium-sized export enterprises in 2008 will be even greater.
Export enterprises have a great role in absorbing domestic surplus labor, and China still has the problems of urban-rural differences, geographical differences, and polarization between the rich and the poor. Therefore, from the current perspective, China should make full use of these labor-intensive enterprises to create More jobs.
I. Introduction
In recent years, China's economy has continuously maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. Under the background of insufficient domestic demand, the excess capacity caused by investment can only be digested through export demand. In April 2008 it reached another US $ 1.756 trillion. In this case, the government has increased its export regulation while trying to increase domestic demand. In July 2007, the Ministry of Commerce announced measures to reduce export tax rebates. At the same time, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has reached new highs after the exchange rate reform in 2005. By April 2008, the cumulative appreciation reached 18%, and the “declining effect†brought about by the appreciation of the RMB has begun to appear. From the external situation, the subprime crisis has basically caused the US economic recession. The EU has been slowed down by the US subprime crisis, and its economy has also shown signs of slowing down. As China's main export market, this means that the demand for China's export products will likely be significantly reduced.
According to statistics, at present China's total exports account for more than 35% of GDP, which plays an important role in promoting economic development. Export-oriented enterprises have a unique advantage in absorbing surplus labor. However, in the context of the rapid appreciation of the RMB and tight credit, these small and medium-sized export companies are under double pressure from falling profits and rupturing capital flows. In order to better measure the impact of the rapid appreciation of the renminbi on export companies, the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics established a research group on the research on the impact of renminbi appreciation on export companies. By collecting data information of exporting enterprises and analyzing with relevant theories, the research group finally obtained the degree of impact of RMB appreciation on exporting enterprises, and made some targeted policy recommendations accordingly.
The research scope of this report is mainly for export enterprises in Liaoning, Hebei, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. The total sample number is 1900. Among them, a total of 1780 small and medium-sized export enterprises1 were selected as the sample for this research. The basic composition and industry distribution of the sample companies are shown in Table 1:
Table 1 Basic situation of sample enterprises
This report is divided into three parts: the first part is the preface; the second part is the main body of the report, combined with the results of this survey to analyze the impact of RMB appreciation on export companies from different sides; the third part is based on the previous introduction Summarize and make policy recommendations. [next]
2. The impact of RMB appreciation on export enterprises
Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar faster and faster. In 2006, the renminbi appreciated against the US dollar by 3.35%. In 2007, the renminbi appreciated against the US dollar by 6.2%. Since 2008, the renminbi has appreciated by another 5%.
The trend of the exchange rate of the RMB against the Euro has maintained its ups and downs. The RMB depreciated against the Euro by 5.74% in 2006 and 3.78% in 2007. The cumulative depreciation of the renminbi against the euro in the first three months of 2008 was 3.91%. However, since April, the renminbi has appreciated 1.64% against the euro.
According to the survey results, the impact of RMB appreciation on export companies is manifested in the following aspects:
(1) RMB appreciation has not reduced the cost of raw materials on a large scale, and the cost growth rate of 80% of export enterprises is above 5%
For most export-oriented enterprises, the cost of raw materials occupies an important part of their production costs. We have made detailed statistics on the source of raw materials produced by the sample companies by industry.
Table 2 Origin of raw materials produced by sample companies
It can be seen from Table 2 that a total of 1,570 export enterprises in 1,780 sample companies have their raw materials from China, accounting for 88.20% of the entire sample; and 187 companies from abroad, accounting for only 10.51% of the total sample . For the agricultural and sideline products processing industry, food, beverage, tobacco manufacturing, textile, clothing, shoes, hat manufacturing, etc., most of the raw materials used in their production come from domestic, accounting for 91.62%, 92.78%, 90.46 %. It shows that the raw materials of China's export-oriented enterprises mainly come from China. Therefore, the supply of domestic resources and other raw materials determines the production costs of most small and medium-sized export enterprises in China.
Since most of China's enterprises are in a high-input and extensive growth mode, with the economy maintaining double-digit growth for five consecutive years, various resources and energy consumption are huge, and strong demand has driven the rise in domestic raw material prices. The cost of most small and medium-sized export companies has also started to rise due to rising raw material prices. On the other hand, according to the research process, most export companies use long-term contract pricing. In the context of rising raw material prices, the increase in production costs cannot be immediately transferred to the product price, so the risk can only be borne by themselves. bear. At the same time, because most of China's small and medium-sized export enterprises are small in scale and do not have their own brands, their bargaining power is also weak when negotiating with large foreign importers. They can often only passively accept the price proposed by the other party, so it is difficult to pass the increase in cost. Increase the export price to pass on; In addition, because the RMB has always appreciated against the US dollar, and most of China's export companies use the US dollar settlement method, therefore, export companies face the pressure of rising production costs and cannot pass on the risk. To face exchange loss 2.
For export enterprises of raw materials abroad, although the appreciation of RMB can theoretically reduce their import costs to a certain extent, most international resources are monopolized by large companies and enterprises. However, due to their small scale, individual export enterprises in China Foreign resource exporters often fail to work together when negotiating prices, resulting in opportunities for foreign resource exporters. In the context of their small scale, Chinese export companies can only passively accept the high prices of foreign resource exporters. In addition, due to the existence of speculative factors in the international commodity market, the prices of many resources and energy are artificially high, and most resource prices have risen more than the normal increase in demand, such as international iron ore, oil prices, and grain in 2007. Prices, etc. have risen by more than 50%. Based on the above factors, even for the export enterprises of raw materials abroad, even if the renminbi has been appreciating, the appreciation of the renminbi is smaller than the increase in the price of international resources and energy. The raw material cost reduced by the renminbi appreciation cannot completely cover its export cost pressure. Therefore, on the whole, the rapid appreciation of the renminbi has not greatly reduced the cost of raw materials for enterprises.
At the same time, according to our statistics on the cost growth rate of export companies, the cost growth rate of export companies is mainly concentrated in 5% -7%, this part of the companies (637) accounted for 35.8% of the total number of all sample companies, followed by the most 7% -9% (351 companies, 19.7%), below 5% (336 companies, 17.0%), 11% or more (236 companies, 13.4%), 9% -11% (220, 12.4%) . From the above data, it can be concluded that 83% of export enterprises' cost growth rate is above 5%. For most export enterprises in China, the cost of raw materials has been rising. With the implementation of the new "Labor Contract Law" in 2008, export enterprises need more expenditures on employees, and labor costs will increase greatly. In addition, for the consideration of environmental resource protection, the cost will be further increased for export enterprises with high energy consumption and high pollution. It can be seen that the cost of exporting enterprises is bound to maintain a relatively rapid growth level, and the pressure of exporting enterprises to survive has increased dramatically.
(2) The profit rate is generally low, and the profit growth rate of 50% of export enterprises is below 6%
An important indicator of the quality of an enterprise's operations is its after-tax profit rate. We divided the sample companies' after-tax profit rate in 2007 into five grades, namely below 3%, 3% -5%, 5% -10%, 10% -15% and above 15%. It can be found that the after-tax profit margin of export enterprises in 2007 is mainly concentrated in the two intervals of 3% and 3% -5%. This part of the enterprises (1015) accounted for 57.0% of the total number of all sample enterprises, of which less than 3% Enterprises (541 companies) accounted for 30.4% of the total number of samples. The low profit rate is still a major feature of China's export enterprises. This is mainly based on the following reasons:
First, China's export products still have problems such as low technical content and small added value. Most export enterprises are of a simple processing trade type and can only obtain meager profits.
Second, the production costs of China's export enterprises are rising, mainly reflected in the cost of raw materials and labor costs. Since most of China ’s export enterprises are small and medium-sized export enterprises, they have the characteristics of a large total number but a small single size, and they have not established a good price coordination mechanism with each other. Therefore, the export bargaining power has not increased with the continuous increase of the total amount. It is difficult to pass on the increase in cost through the increase in cost.
Third, as domestic labor costs rise and countries such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam encourage their own processing trade, the market share of domestic export companies has been squeezed. The low technical content of processing trade products can only force exporters to adopt the strategy of “winning at a priceâ€, which causes exporters to compete for a low price to grab a share.
Fourth, due to the impact of the US subprime debt crisis, China ’s exports to the US have shown a downward trend. In addition, the Eurozone economy has begun to show signs of slowing down. International trade protectionism is on the rise, and developed countries continue to use barriers such as technology and tariffs to greatly increase China's export costs.
Fifth, most of China's export companies use US dollars for settlement, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has led to the loss of profits of export companies.
The above fully illustrates that under the influence of various factors, the profit margins of exporting enterprises are generally low, and the rapid appreciation of the RMB undoubtedly has a huge impact on exporting enterprises5.
At the same time, the profit growth rate of export enterprises is low. From Figure 3, it can be found that the average profit growth rate of export enterprises in the past three years is mainly concentrated in the two intervals of below 4% and 4% -6%, of which companies (626) with profit growth below 4% account for all 35.14% of the total sample enterprises, followed by 4% -6% (424, accounting for 23.80%), 6% -8% (271, accounting for 15.21%), 8% -10% (186, accounting for 10.42%), more than 12% (163, accounting for 9.15%), 10% -12% (110, accounting for 6.18%). It can be seen that the average profit growth rate in the past three years is mostly below 6%, which does not match China's GDP growth rate of more than 10% for five consecutive years, and export companies' profit growth has encountered bottlenecks. [next]
(3) 90% of export enterprises have a tolerance of RMB appreciation below 5%
In response to the current trend of accelerating RMB appreciation, the research team made a statistic on the extent of RMB appreciation that export enterprises can tolerate. Divided into five grades, namely 2% below, 2% -4%, 4% -5%, 5% -6% and 6% above.
The RMB appreciation that can be tolerated by exporting companies is mainly concentrated below 2% (including 2%). This part of the companies (707 companies) accounted for 39.7% of the total sample, followed by 2% -4% (602, 33.8%), 4% -5% (340 companies, 19.1%), 5% -6% (88 companies, 4.95%), more than 6% (43 companies, 2.42%). Less than 30% of export companies can tolerate a RMB appreciation of more than 4%. At present, most of the small and medium-sized export enterprises in China can tolerate a relatively small appreciation of the renminbi. This is mainly reflected in the fact that the rapid and sharp appreciation of the renminbi has not reduced the raw material costs of the exporting enterprises on a large scale. Exchange rate losses occurred from the time the contract was signed to when the payment was received. Due to the lagging development of the domestic foreign exchange derivative market and the lack of relevant talents in small and medium-sized export enterprises themselves, these enterprises cannot pass on risks through hedging. The rapid and sharp appreciation of the renminbi has also brought uncertainty to the production of export companies. As we have found in our survey, some export companies do not have a good expectation of the future appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and the time of appreciation, resulting in most exports. Enterprises can only passively accept order production and not large-scale active production to expand the market. In addition, the coordination mechanism between China's export enterprises is extremely imperfect, especially the phenomenon of "meeting with each other" often occurs in the same industry, and the export companies have different prices due to the expected RMB appreciation. , Causing the relevant foreign importers to push down prices, thereby reducing the profit margins of export enterprises. In general, the appreciation that export enterprises can tolerate is relatively small. However, the rate of RMB appreciation in 2008 was accelerating. In the first three months, RMB appreciation against the US dollar has exceeded 4%. It is foreseeable that the export pressure of small and medium-sized export enterprises in 2008 will be even greater.
(4) Most export companies expect the RMB exchange rate to strengthen
When asked about the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen, 60.8% of export companies believe that the RMB will maintain appreciation against the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Euro at the same time, and 26.3% of export companies believe that the RMB will continue to maintain the exchange rate. The appreciation of the US dollar and Japanese yen and the depreciation of the euro, the rest indicates that the trend of the RMB against these three currencies is unclear. It can be seen that most export companies expect the RMB exchange rate to strengthen in the future. Due to the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and the depreciation of the euro in 2007, some export companies resold products exported to the United States to the euro area, thereby maintaining a relatively rapid growth. Therefore, the entire export volume still maintained rapid growth, but with the China-EU Business Summit, trade protection from the EU and other countries and the region's economic growth slowed down due to the US subprime crisis, the trend of the RMB against the euro in the future It will change from weak to strong, and the substantial growth of China's exports to the EU will be difficult to sustain in the second half of 2008. Although most export companies expect that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen in the future, they will still encounter difficulties in the magnitude of the appreciation and the length of the appreciation time. This will still bring difficulties to China ’s export enterprises in the future. Certainty is not conducive to its large-scale production.
(V) Export enterprises adopt various methods to deal with RMB appreciation
The survey found that if the renminbi will continue to maintain a rapid appreciation, it will become the first choice for export enterprises through "improving technology and increasing labor productivity". The selection rate reaches 59.9%, followed by "reducing wages and reducing costs to continue production", the selection rate is 10.5 %; "Keep wages unchanged, but dismiss some employees to continue production", the selection rate is 10.5%; "Sell the enterprise, withdraw funds to change the bank" 6, the selection rate is 5.24%; while the option of "stop production and close down" accounted for only 3.75 %.
Under the pressure of the rapid and rapid appreciation of the renminbi, 59.9% of export enterprises will respond by "improving technology and increasing labor productivity." This also fully shows that China's export enterprises have not been passively treated in the context of rapid appreciation of the renminbi. It is to actively take the most fundamental method to increase the competitiveness of its products, and the development potential is still huge. 10.5% of export enterprises continue to produce by "reducing wages and reducing costs", which obviously does not comply with the relevant provisions of the "New Labor Contract Law" and the need to build a harmonious society. If the response strategy cannot be changed in time in the future, it will be eliminated Will become inevitable. Another 10.5% of export enterprises continue to produce by "reducing employees and lowering costs". These enterprises can be divided into two types, one is a passive response company, and the other is to increase labor production and increase the use of machinery and equipment to reduce accordingly With regard to the use of labor, this part of export enterprises also has good development potential. And 5.24% of export enterprises choose to "sell the enterprise and withdraw the funds to change the bank", which is also a more positive measure from the perspective of enterprise development. In general, under the background of the continuous rapid appreciation of the RMB, only 14.25% of export enterprises have adopted negative response measures, so the vast majority of export enterprises have adopted a positive attitude to respond, of which 59.9% of export enterprises have improved through technology. Stick to the exit.
From the above survey, we can see that in the face of the rapid appreciation of the RMB, most small and medium-sized export companies have adopted a positive attitude, but at the same time we should also see that it takes a long time for companies to improve technology and increase labor productivity. At the same time, it also needs the support of funds. However, the rate of RMB appreciation has been on the rise, and it is difficult to give these improved technology export companies sufficient breathing time. In addition, due to tight currency, these small and medium-sized export companies have difficulty in obtaining the required funds7 . At the same time, when surveying export enterprises “what measures the government should adopt to support small and medium-sized export enterprisesâ€, the option of “using policies to guide large financial institutions to lend more to SMEs†ranked first, followed by “ Establish and improve the system of small and medium-sized financial institutions "and" slow down the appreciation of the renminbi ". Therefore, the government should make full use of the positive attitudes of these small and medium-sized export enterprises to provide policy support in a timely manner, and give enough time for enterprises to improve technology, improve product competitiveness, and finally resolve the export pressure caused by the appreciation of the RMB.
(6) Export enterprises have a large role in absorbing surplus labor
Generally speaking, under the background of rapid appreciation of RMB, the export pressure of China's export enterprises has greatly increased, and their survival prospects are not optimistic. However, export companies are still crucial to China's economic development at this stage. This is not only reflected in the fact that exports can boost GDP growth, but more importantly, these export companies can absorb domestic surplus labor and ease the increasingly severe employment situation. Therefore, this survey also specifically counted the number of employees in the sample enterprises. 47.2% of small and medium-sized export enterprises have less than 200 employees8, followed by 200-500 (382, 21.5%), 500-1500 (294, 16.5%), and 4,000 or more ( 105 companies accounted for 5.92%), 2000-4000 people (88 companies accounted for 4.96%), 1500-2000 people (70 companies accounted for 3.92%). It can be seen from the statistics that small and medium-sized export enterprises are worthy of recognition in terms of their ability to absorb labor.
At present, there is a large amount of surplus labor in China, and their education level is relatively low. Most export enterprises are labor-intensive, and they have a strong ability to absorb low-skilled labor. At the same time, there are regional differences, urban-rural differences, and the differentiation between the rich and the poor in China. For example, Guangdong, a strong economic province, also has a wealthy coastal area and an inland poverty. Therefore, through the development of export enterprises to expand market space, make up for the current situation of insufficient domestic demand, and then add more jobs, in order to narrow the regional, urban and rural differences and the gap between rich and poor, only in this way can more people Can truly enjoy the fruits of economic development. [next]
3. Conclusions and recommendations
According to our research:
(1) Under the conditions of rapid appreciation of the RMB and tight domestic credit, although China's total exports have maintained a rapid growth trend in 2007, with the cumulative effect of RMB appreciation and the deterioration of the external international environment, most export enterprises The profit margin in 2007 was low, and the growth rate of profit margin was also at a low level.
(2) In the context of tight credit, it is difficult for small and medium-sized export enterprises to obtain all the funds needed for production from financial institutions, which restricts their expansion and reproduction. At the same time, the increase in interest rates has already caused their debt service. Under great pressure, there is already a phenomenon where a company is unable to handle it.
(3) The rapid appreciation of the renminbi at this stage has exacerbated the export pressure of enterprises. Due to the weak bargaining power of exporting companies, the rise in exchange losses is difficult to pass on by raising the export price of products. In addition, most enterprises adopt contract production, and export enterprises also face exchange rate risks caused by the rapid appreciation of the renminbi.
(4) Against the background of both internal and external pressures and the low value-added and technical content of China ’s export enterprises, the vast majority of export enterprises still have a positive attitude to respond, that is, to establish themselves by improving technology and labor productivity Brands to expand the international market space.
(5) Policy support is not enough. At this stage, China's export enterprises are still not strong enough, and their ability to resist risks is still weak. An important condition for companies to expand their development scale is the need for a good external environment. In this survey, we found that most export companies want more policy support.
Exporting companies play an irreplaceable role in digesting domestic excess capacity and absorbing domestic surplus labor. At the same time, many manufacturing industries such as agricultural and sideline products processing and textiles, shoes and hats have a strong linkage effect on agricultural development. Therefore, at this stage, export enterprises, especially labor-intensive export enterprises, still need to be properly protected. In the face of the increase in land prices and related costs in the eastern coastal areas, the policy of transferring these small and medium-sized export enterprises to backward areas in the Mainland can be implemented. . [next]
At the same time, while fully implementing domestic tight credit and accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi, it is also necessary to prevent the “Matthew effect†caused by this aggregate policy from harming these originally vulnerable small and medium-sized export enterprises. The following aspects need to be handled correctly:
1. It is inevitable that monetary policy as a total policy will hurt small and medium-sized enterprises in the process of implementation. However, considering that the central bank is currently the domestic benchmark interest rate maker, the central bank can formulate a series of interest rate mechanisms that are conducive to SME loans, such as giving preferential policies for SME loan interest rates. At the same time, the central bank can also guide domestic financial institutions through window guidance More funds will be invested in export enterprises with funding gaps to provide funds for the latter to improve technology and increase labor productivity. In addition, the central bank can also punish some financial institutions for excessively distributing funds to overheated departments by issuing targeted central bills, thereby better guiding the flow of funds to small and medium-sized export enterprises.
2. Provide relevant financial support and policy support for the transfer process of small and medium-sized export enterprises. In the face of rising land prices and other related costs in the eastern coastal areas, the transfer of small and medium-sized export enterprises to the mainland has undoubtedly become the best choice. However, inland provinces are also facing problems with imperfect infrastructure, lack of relevant incentive policies, and insufficient government information transparency. Therefore, while implementing a tight monetary policy, it is also necessary to increase financial support for infrastructure construction in inland provinces to lay the foundation for inland provinces to undertake the transfer of export enterprises as soon as possible. In addition, the central and western governments should take more Open thinking to encourage the entry of related companies.
3. Correctly grasp the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the industrial upgrading of export enterprises. Based on the experience of Japan, South Korea, Singapore and other countries, the appreciation of local currency has been used to promote the upgrading of its domestic industrial structure and enhance the competitiveness of its export products. However, at this stage, our country is very different from the domestic situation of these countries. This is mainly reflected in the fact that although China's economy has maintained rapid growth for more than two decades, the current regional differences, urban-rural differences, and the differentiation between rich and poor are still very serious. The Gini coefficient has seriously exceeded the international warning line, and there is still a large amount of surplus labor in the country. Export-oriented enterprises still play a decisive role in absorbing domestic surplus labor, eliminating geographical differences, urban-rural differences, and the differentiation between rich and poor. Therefore, the central bank should grasp the rhythm of RMB appreciation and give China's exporting companies enough time for technological improvement and industrial upgrading. Don't rush to cause a large number of exporting companies to close down and aggravate the increasingly severe domestic employment situation.
4. The appreciation of RMB still needs to follow the principle of "proactiveness, graduality and controllability". Only in this way can export enterprises be given stable expectations, which is conducive to the stable and orderly operation of export enterprises and the corresponding exchange rate risk avoidance measures. At the same time, it has also given the expectation of stability of international hot money, because following this “three sex†principle will lead to the inflow of hot money, but the arbitrage will take longer after the inflow of hot money. Speculative capital. On the contrary, if a strategy of substantial appreciation is adopted, on the one hand, it is difficult to find a balanced exchange rate point; on the other hand, after a substantial appreciation, international hot money will form two expectations: First, after a substantial appreciation of the RMB, it may over-correct and appear exchange rate trends Down, so hot money immediately fled in a large amount after a one-time sharp appreciation. Second, after the yuan's one-time sharp appreciation, there may be a next wave of arrival9, thus causing more inflow of hot money. From the above analysis, these two expectations will cause excessive and frequent capital flows, threatening the stability of the domestic market.
5. Properly weigh the advantages and disadvantages of using rapid appreciation of the renminbi to control domestic inflation and the impact on export enterprises. The appreciation of the renminbi has a certain effect on the management of domestic imported inflation, which is mainly reflected in the skyrocketing prices of international crude oil, copper, iron and other minerals and food. However, China's economic structure has imbalances, and it is difficult to manage inflation through simple RMB appreciation. However, several points of RMB appreciation are very important for exporting companies that are already weak in profits. Therefore, it is necessary to correctly weigh the use of RMB appreciation to manage domestic inflation and the serious adverse effects on exporting companies.
Sixth, we cannot rely excessively on the RMB appreciation policy to reduce the foreign trade surplus. Theoretically, the appreciation of the RMB can lower the import price and increase the export price of the product, thereby increasing imports, reducing exports, and reducing the balance of payments surplus. However, the actual situation is that import consumption still accounts for a small proportion of domestic consumption, so it is difficult to increase domestic consumption through RMB appreciation. In addition, the appreciation of the RMB is also difficult to directly promote the same increase in the price of export products, so it may not lead to a reduction in exports in the short term10. Rather, the appreciation of the RMB is borne by the export enterprise itself. When the cost pressure brought by the appreciation, the export value will decline, but at this time the export enterprises have also closed down. Since the spontaneous increase in imports in the market cannot proceed well, the government can use the huge foreign exchange reserves in hand to import a large amount of energy or technology needed for domestic economic development to alleviate the phenomenon of excessive balance of payments surplus.
7. Accelerate the development of the foreign exchange derivatives market, and provide rich tools for export enterprises to avoid exchange rate risks. At present, China's foreign exchange derivatives market has the problems of lagging development and insufficient hedging tools. In response to the increasingly complex international exchange rate trends, export companies need to use various foreign exchange derivatives to avoid exchange rate risk, thereby reducing exchange losses.
8. Accelerate the establishment and improvement of the export enterprise coordination mechanism. China's export enterprises have the characteristics of small scale and large number. Most export enterprises do not have their own brands and core technologies, and can only win foreign market share by "winning by price". Therefore, it is necessary to establish and improve the coordination mechanism between various industries. For example, on the basis of existing industry associations, a closer cooperation method can be adopted. Uniform pricing for foreign importers can be used to prevent companies from competing for price compression Profit space for the entire industry. [next]
Note:
1. The standard for enterprise size division refers to the "Statistical Division of Large, Medium and Small Industrial Enterprises (Interim)" published by the SASAC. Considering that small and medium-sized export enterprises are relatively weak in resisting external pressures and have a strong ability to absorb domestic surplus labor, their research is more practical. Therefore, the 1,780 enterprises selected from the survey sample this time belong to SME.
2. According to the feedback from our investigators after investigating some export enterprises, many of the heads of export enterprises actually knew nothing about RMB hedging. It can be seen that these export enterprises are obviously unlikely to prevent exchange losses by buying RMB forwards and other hedges.
3. According to the feedback from our field investigations by our investigators, there are vicious competitions among many export enterprises, especially those with larger scales often do not cooperate with those small enterprises, but do everything possible to suppress them.
4. According to our research, when the main constraints facing the development of enterprises, "increasing production costs" became the project with the highest selection rate, accounting for 23.4% of the total options.
5. In our investigation, we found that among the main factors restricting the development of export enterprises, "RMB appreciation" ranked second in the selected items (the first is "increasing production costs"), accounting for 22.3%. In addition, we also surveyed "What kind of work do export companies want the government to do to support export companies", and the item of "slowing the appreciation of the renminbi" ranks third, accounting for 15.7%. This also fully shows that the substantial appreciation of the RMB has caused huge survival pressure for enterprises.
6. We have also conducted a survey on export enterprises whether they have plans to invest in the stock market or the property market in 2008. The survey found that 13.4% of export companies have plans to invest in the stock market or the property market in 2008, and there are 20.1% Of exporting companies depend on the specific situation, that is to say, if the exporting companies' living conditions deteriorate further in 2008, they may invest in the asset market.
7. Our research team also has statistics on the part of the impact of current credit tightening on corporate financing. 60.6% of small and medium-sized export enterprises believe that the financing difficulty in 2008 is significantly greater than that in 2007. Appreciation and the current tight monetary policy make it difficult to achieve its goal of "improving technology and increasing labor productivity." Therefore, as long as the appreciation rate of the RMB does not decrease and the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized export enterprises are not resolved, then these small and medium-sized export enterprises can only choose other negative options, which should be highly valued by the relevant parts.
8. It may not be too much in terms of the number of people, but there are 896 small export enterprises in this sample, accounting for 50.4% of the total sample, so 47.2% of the sample export companies have fewer than 200 employees, which is in line with the facts.
The central bank suddenly announced a 2% appreciation of the yuan against the US dollar during the exchange reforms in September and 2005, which the market had never expected before. Therefore, if this sudden jump is carried out in the future, it will give the market the expectation of the next jump, which will cause more hot money to flow into the gamble and the next yuan jump.
10. Since the exchange rate reform, the appreciation of the RMB has become faster and faster, but at the same time, the export value has also maintained rapid growth. For this paradox in international trade theory, a careful analysis can see that the rapid appreciation of the RMB has not directly transferred When the price of exported products rises, but by compressing their profit margins, it is not surprising that the export value can still maintain rapid growth.
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