In the past two days, affected by the “money shortage†of banks, real estate stocks have fallen, and the control of liquidity has raised concerns about the tight capital chain of real estate companies. Some experts and industry insiders judge that if the real estate enterprises' funds are not optimistic in the second half of the year, they may force real estate enterprises to adjust their sales and price strategies. The "money shortage" may face chain transmission from banks to developers to local governments. Increase the pressure on local governments to repay debts.
Policy support shifts
On the 24th, the property sector plunged more than 7%, which was the most serious sector affected by the “money shortageâ€. Merchants, Poly and other 27 housing companies fell, the leader Vanke fell 8.79%, 103 housing companies fell more than 5%, the 25th real estate sector continued to fall.
Hu Gang, a professor at Jinan University's School of Management, said that most of the housing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are still the main source of financing for bank loans, and the continuous innovation of off-balance-sheet funds is an important force supporting the real estate market. Banks' control over liquidity, bank loans from many real estate companies, especially through wealth management products and real estate trusts, will also be in a hurry.
In the first five months of this year, real estate trusts raised more than 90 billion yuan, accounting for about 30% of the entire financing scale. The recent strengthening of the supervision of off-balance-sheet funds such as bank trusts and wealth management products will have a great impact on the funds of real estate enterprises.
"The recent stock market crash has concentrated on the concerns of the follow-up market." Hu Gang believes that, compared with the short-term impact of the stock market, more importantly, the central government and the central bank’s strategy itself show a policy shift. The momentum of excess liquidity over the past few years has been likely to change the momentum of real estate development. The market has a key impact in the future.
Developer game is strong or reversed
Industry insiders judge that once liquidity adjustments continue, real estate companies will also face "money shortage."
The main funds of real estate development enterprises come from three aspects, credit, pre-sales and self-raised funds.
Chen Hao, executive director of the China Real Estate Data Research Institute, said that as a capital-intensive industry, real estate companies are mostly highly indebted and rely on financing for a long time. Once the money is tight, many rely on domestic bank loans and off-balance-sheet funds such as trusts and wealth management products. Domestic financing of real estate companies will be tense.
Chen Wei said that although the sales of benchmarking houses in the first half of the year were good, in the second half of the year, with the tight capital chain, it is likely to accelerate sales and quickly withdraw funds. Real estate enterprises, especially small and medium-sized real estate enterprises with single financing channels, may adjust their sales strategies and carry out “price correctionsâ€, which will bring a squid effect to market expectations. This also means that the developer game, which lasts for half a year, will be reversed in the second half of the year.
Or to local government
Some experts and industry insiders say that the control of liquidity may produce a series of chain reactions.
Experts reminded that it is necessary to prevent the break of the capital chain of some small housing enterprises in the second half of the year, which may bring social hidden dangers. If the housing price bubble spreads, there is a hidden danger of the withdrawal of the funds after the break of the corporate capital chain, which may bring about no small social risks. It is recommended that the relevant departments strengthen supervision.
In addition, Hu Gang said that some localities are keen on debt-based development, and are keen on large-scale development and grand planning. Once the developer's funds are tight and the land sales are slowing down, the local government's debt repayment pressure may also increase.
"From the perspective of the money shortage on the chain transmission of banks, developers and local governments, the risks have already become prominent. This is where the central government regulates in advance, allowing funds to flow to where it goes, thus preventing greater systemic risks." Hu Gang said.
â– Related news
Shijingshan commercial plot floor price dropped more than 5,000
The Beijing News (Reporter Yuan Xiaoyu) Yesterday, the only commercial land in June, the C2 commercial and financial land in the K block of the Yinhe Business District in Shijingshan District, Beijing, was held for bidding activities. There were Fuzhou Taihe and Huaying Hengtai Complex. The three groups of enterprises including Vanke, Northern Wankun and Zhonghuixiyuan Joint Venture participated in the enterprise. The price of the company's quotation was between RMB15,700/m2 and RMB17,500/m2, and the C2 commercial of Lugu Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing, which was sold in April this year. Compared with the financial land (formerly Beijing Spring Factory), the floor price dropped by 3800-5600 yuan.
The land that was tendered yesterday was located in Lugu Road, Shijingshan District, and bordered by Shijingshan Wanda Plaza in the north. In April this year, another commercial plot in the same area, the C2 commercial and financial land of Lugu Road, Shijingshan District, with a total construction area of ​​54,700 square meters, was sold at 1.165 billion yuan, equivalent to a floor price of 21,300 yuan / square meter. If the highest price of the K block in the Yinhe Business District of Shijingshan District was calculated yesterday, the commercial land in the same location fell by 5,600 yuan in less than three months.
Mao Daqing, executive vice president of Vanke Group and general manager of Beijing Vanke, believes that the price quoted yesterday is very reasonable. Compared with the Beijing Spring Factory plot, the plot has a higher volume ratio, a larger area and a larger amount of capital.
Beijing Zhongyuan Real Estate analysts believe that compared with June, the overall funding has changed. Although the “money shortage†has not directly affected the real industry, the psychological impact on the real estate market cannot be ignored. In addition, the transfer of the land itself is a tender, not the same type of listing, the competition is not sufficient, and also affects the land transaction price.
â– Analysis
Housing companies take more cautious land
Tight financial liquidity will have a big impact on the capital-intensive real estate industry.
Yesterday, a Beijing housing company said that the real estate industry is particularly dependent on the financial industry, the first impact is the developers to take the land. If it was previously sold at 5,000 yuan/m2 and sold at 20,000 yuan/m2, it will have to invest again after the sale, and the land price has already risen to 10,000 yuan/m2. This requires real estate companies to get land through refinancing, and if the cost of financing is more difficult, it will be very cautious for the landlord to take the land.
For the real estate market, the real estate market believes that from the current Beijing sales market, developers have sufficient funds, and the sales of various projects are smooth, and there will be no large-scale price cuts. However, the "money shortage" has tightened the money bag of developers, and it has also reduced the purchasing power of buyers using financial leverage. If the "money shortage" continues to be unresolved, it will put pressure on the sales of housing companies.
Another real estate entrepreneur believes that the current direct impact of the money shortage on the real estate market is still unknown. The company has not yet studied the countermeasures. The impact on the real estate industry may be reflected in 3-5 months.
â– Wind vane
Relying on "transfusion" to "hematopoietic"
Chen Shun, executive chairman of the China Real Estate Managers Union, believes that the money shortage reflects the shift of China's credit policy. In the past, real estate was the industry with the most concentrated capital flows. The history of relying on loose monetary policy to support real estate development is gone forever. Will guide funds from the real estate industry into the physical industry. But it also requires a process. In this context, the comprehensive strength of real estate enterprises, such as products, corporate funds, external financing capabilities, and reasonable financial arrangements, will be tested.
Yan Yuejin, a researcher at the Shanghai Yiju Research Institute, believes that after a large amount of credit funds were invested in the property market in the past, the bubble has intensified and the fund recovery effect is not good. This vicious circle will accelerate the self-reflection of the property market. For the housing enterprises, it is necessary to realize the risk of over-reliance on the banking system and seeking indirect financing methods from this “money shortageâ€. At the same time, it should be transformed from the "blood transfusion" method to the "hematopoietic" survival model, and get rid of the rigid financing model in the past, which is conducive to enhancing competitiveness in the real estate financial market.
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