In the early morning of May 23, Beijing time, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article pointed out on Wednesday that a more detailed analysis of the performance of the Chinese economy in 2012 shows that the Chinese economy is further losing its balance, relying more on credit-assisted than before. Large-scale investment projects, and this is also a tendency that China has tried to limit before.
The article pointed out that further reliance on capital expenditure projects to drive growth and China's shift from economic model to consumption-driven target is contradictory, which will lead to faster accumulation of debt, leading to serious industrial overcapacity and continue to drag down profit performance. Even more uninhabited "ghost towns".
According to data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the proportion of fixed investment in China's GDP in 2012 was 46.1%, an increase from 45.6% in 2011. China’s overall GDP data has been released for a long time, but detailed data on the classification of investment, consumption and exports was not available until earlier this week.
The data also shows that net exports accounted for 2.7% of GDP, far below the 8.8% in 2007, which also reflects a shift from dependence on foreign demand to domestic investment-driven growth. At the same time, the proportion of household consumption in the total economic output is flat at 35.7% - considering China's efforts to shift the economy to a consumer-driven drive, this is also a disappointing result, measured by international standards. A very low score.
In 2011, China’s economic transformation efforts have made some progress, and the proportion of household consumption has risen, while the proportion of fixed investment has remained flat. But with the slowdown in economic growth in 2012, the renewed reliance on credit and investment to drive economic growth seems to have erased a little bit of progress before.
Capital economics Chinese economist Mark Williams pointed out that "economic rebalancing is a necessary challenge for China, but in the past year, China has not made any progress."
In the first four months of 2013, there were signs that China’s economic structure was once again in the wrong direction. The growth in disposable income of urban residents has slowed down. In addition, the impact on the luxury spending of public servants has also hit retail sales growth – both of which point to more sluggish consumption.
Economists point out that over-reliance on investment as a driver of economic growth is a key risk facing the world's second-largest economy. Over the past decade, the combination of low wages, the low interest rates of state-owned banks and the depreciation of the renminbi have caused a boom in business and a suppression of household income. International Monetary Fund estimates show that low interest rates shift 4% of GDP per year from household savers to large companies.
As a result of this situation, investment continues to grow and the income available to consumers is squeezed. The proportion of investment in the Chinese economy is significantly higher than that of other Asian countries in the process of high-speed industrialization. According to data provided by the International Monetary Fund, in 1991, there was a peak in fixed investment in GDP, which was only 40.1%.
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